2007 deer and elk outlook

By Brian Wakeling, big game program supervisor, Arizona Game and Fish Department

Getting ready to head out for your fall deer or elk hunt? Here are our regional forecasts for these species.

Deer
From a statewide perspective, white-tailed deer fawn recruitment remained similar to last year’s level, whereas mule deer fawn recruitment dropped a little. Both remained within the range in which deer populations tend to remain stable, and deer hunting opportunities should be similar to last year. Summer precipitation, although not tremendous, did provide good green up throughout much of the state in late summer, and healthy deer herds and antler growth should be found statewide. Buck-to-doe ratios have been increasing for both mule and white-tailed deer over the past two years, so more bucks may be available. Don’t expect to be overrun with deer, but experiences should be similar to the last two years.

Regions I through IV are known mainly for mule deer and provide good hunting opportunities for this species. Even with recent improvement, Region IV mule deer tend to be in low-density herds, so plan to wear out the seat of your pants while using binoculars rather than wearing out boots while walking to be successful. This can be an important strategy regardless of where you hunt, but is more difficult in forested habitat. Don’t be afraid to use those boots to get you off the beaten track, but rely on optics once you get there. Mule deer numbers in Regions V and VI are also stable to slightly increasing.

Regions V and VI have the most popular white-tailed deer units, and glassing is essential for finding these elusive ghosts. Sustained fawn recruitment from last year should translate into more young bucks this year. Look closely: Many “skin heads” turn out to be young bucks on further scrutiny. Regions I and II have lesser-known but excellent white-tailed deer hunts. Areas recovering from recent fires can be productive, especially near steep terrain and canyons that white-tails seem to favor.

Regardless of where you were drawn this year, know the boundaries of your unit. Check your tag to be certain of the area for which you were drawn. Every year a few hunters mistakenly assume they were drawn for their first choice when they were actually drawn for an alternate unit, but don’t find out otherwise until they get to camp, or, worse yet, until a wildlife manager checks their harvested deer. It can be an expensive mistake. And don’t forget to sign your tag.

Elk
Although fall survey data is preliminary, many areas are reporting good calf numbers and favorable bull-to-cow ratios. Elk habitat that suffered from fires two to five years ago is producing good herbaceous vegetation as a result of summer rains. In addition to recruitment, favorable forage conditions are also good for antler development. There have already been many reports of 400+ bulls harvested during the 2007 archery hunts, and several impressive photographs are circulating through e-mail.

People with antlerless tags often have bigger challenges during hunts than do bull hunters. It always seems that just before the season, you cannot walk through the woods without stumbling over cow elk and their young, but shortly after the season begins, they disappear like water vapor. I’ve told many a hunter that it is only sporting for the Department to inform the elk of season dates, and they seem to take notice. In my experience, it can be productive during antlerless hunts to work small openings in the forest during midday, especially in later seasons, as elk seem to adjust to hunters’ typical patterns of being out early or late in the day and sleeping at midday.

Regions I (Pinetop) and II (Flagstaff)
Wildfires did not play a large role this year. Older burned areas are going to be attractive to elk. Elk often respond to early accumulations of snowfall by moving to lower elevations, but a single snowfall event will not immediately drive all elk out of an area. Rainfall and snow can cause unfavorable road conditions. Always try to minimize the impact you have on primitive roads.

Region III (Kingman)
Elk populations have been productive and wide-ranging. Much of the elk habitats are large landscapes with interspersed pinyon-juniper woodland. These animals can be highly mobile and may seem to vaporize once hunts begin. Being in the field early and late can be important, but don’t forget midday, especially later in the hunt. This strategy can be critical regardless of your unit and region.

Region V (Tucson) and Region VI (Mesa)
Although Region V has elk hunts in Units 28 and 31, these areas are managed for elk at low densities. These can be tough hunts in nontraditional areas. You may need more than your share of good luck to be successful. Region VI elk populations are doing well. Units 22 and 23 continue to be good producers of quality animals.

Virtually any unit in Arizona has the potential to produce a record-book bull. To make the most of your opportunity, be certain that your rifle is shooting accurately before you get to the field. Judging distances can be more challenging with elk hunting than with virtually any other hunt. Distances in forested habitat just seem closer than they really are; you expect long distances with pronghorn or deer hunting, but mistakes that change the outcome of a hunt are easy to make when pursuing elk.